Frenchy vs. Andruw

As promised, here's more on Jeff Francoeur's disturbing downward statistical trend. We all remember Andruw Jones, right? It's hard to think that a player could be more loved by Braves fans, which also shows just how bad he had to get before we were ready for him to be patrolling somebody else's center field. His strikeouts and poor plate discipline just became too much to overcome his prodigious home run totals.

Well, guess what? Frenchy is Andruw Jones - without the power. And if you're still looking toward a bright future for Francoeur, you may want to stop looking. If Andruw is any indication, the Frenchy you see now is the Frenchy you're probably going to get from here on out. And that, my friends, means we need a new right fielder.

Here are Frenchy's and Andruw's stats for their first four seasons (Jones first, Francoeur second):

Games: 505-549
At bats: 1,679-2,149
Runs: 257-278
Hits: 436-577
Doubles: 93-117
Triples: 15-10
Homers: 80-73
RBIs: 257-324
Strikeouts: 368-430
K/AB: 1/4.6-1/5.0
Walks: 179-115
Stolen bases: 74-9
On-base percentage (by season): .265-.336, .329-.293, .321-.338, .365-.294
Slugging percentage (by season): .443-.549. .416-.449, .515-.444, .483-.359
Batting average (by season): .217-300, .231-260, .271-.293 ,.275-.239

As you can see, Frenchy comes out ahead in the categories that are dependent primarily on him playing in more games and notching quite a few more at bats. But there are some clear trends, few of which make him look like he'll even approach Andruw Jones' league.

Despite nearly 500 fewer at bats, Jones outhomers Francoeur 80-73. But Frenchy makes up for it with average, right? Uhhh, no. Francoeur owns a middling .267-.260 edge. On-base percentage? Uhhh, no again. Jones' lousy on-base percentage became a running joke in Atlanta, but the .365 he notched in his fourth year is 27 points better than Frenchy's 2007 career-best mark (by comparison, Chipper Jones has never had an OBP lower than .353- and that came in his rookie year).

Yet that hasn't translated to fewer strikeouts for Francoeur. Jones earned a reputation as a whiff machine in Atlanta, and his K every 4.6 at bats over his first four seasons proved it was more than a hunch. Yet Frenchy is only slightly better, 5.0-1, and here's a real shocker: Andruw more than makes up for it a dominant edge in walks (179-115).

That's right, Andruw Jones is a MORE disciplined hitter than Jeff Francoeur. Let that sink in for a few minutes.

So we've established that Francoeur is just plain bad, even my Andruw Jones standards. But we already knew that, right? The question is, is he going to get better? My money is on absolutely not.

Take Jones. His strikeout ratio never improved at all, actually dropping to 4.5-1 for his career. Neither did his OBP, as he's yet to do better .366 in a season. Average? Well, Andruw did hit .303 in his fifth season - but never better than .277 again.

The only thing that did get better was power, as he six times hit more home runs than his best over his four seasons and five times matched or bettered his top slugging percentage from his first four campaigns. In other words, except for home runs, Andruw Jones was as good as he was ever going to get after three seasons in a Braves uniform.

Is he an anomaly? Well, Chipper Jones set almost every single-season mark of his career in his fifth season - as did Andruw. Both were good to great for several years after that, but they were never better than they were in that fifth season, and that fifth season was merely an extension of what they had shown over their first four. Frenchy's best has barely been good.

Sure, those are only two examples, but I'd be willing to bet that most good players who aren't freebasing horse steroids show the same trend. That means that the most we could ever expect from Frenchy, in our wildest dreams, would be next season, and judging from his first four we're looking at, what?, a .295 average? 35 homers? 115 RBIs? With a TON of strikeouts and pretty much no production at all outside of the round-trippers?

History shows it's possible, but even if it happens that's it. Then you're stuck with a slightly above-average power hitter who is simply a bad offensive player in every other respect - and who is only going to get worse with each passing summer. Frenchy will not help you by advancing runners or working pitchers or getting on base in other ways. If he's not hitting the ball out of the park, he's basically like having another pitcher in the lineup.

Hey, I like Francoeur. He hustles. He cares. He's just not very good, and he's never going to be. It's time for the Braves to cut their losses.

They still won't be able to beat the Marlins in the East, but it'll be a start.