Frenchy vs. Andruw

As promised, here's more on Jeff Francoeur's disturbing downward statistical trend. We all remember Andruw Jones, right? It's hard to think that a player could be more loved by Braves fans, which also shows just how bad he had to get before we were ready for him to be patrolling somebody else's center field. His strikeouts and poor plate discipline just became too much to overcome his prodigious home run totals.

Well, guess what? Frenchy is Andruw Jones - without the power. And if you're still looking toward a bright future for Francoeur, you may want to stop looking. If Andruw is any indication, the Frenchy you see now is the Frenchy you're probably going to get from here on out. And that, my friends, means we need a new right fielder.

Here are Frenchy's and Andruw's stats for their first four seasons (Jones first, Francoeur second):

Games: 505-549
At bats: 1,679-2,149
Runs: 257-278
Hits: 436-577
Doubles: 93-117
Triples: 15-10
Homers: 80-73
RBIs: 257-324
Strikeouts: 368-430
K/AB: 1/4.6-1/5.0
Walks: 179-115
Stolen bases: 74-9
On-base percentage (by season): .265-.336, .329-.293, .321-.338, .365-.294
Slugging percentage (by season): .443-.549. .416-.449, .515-.444, .483-.359
Batting average (by season): .217-300, .231-260, .271-.293 ,.275-.239

As you can see, Frenchy comes out ahead in the categories that are dependent primarily on him playing in more games and notching quite a few more at bats. But there are some clear trends, few of which make him look like he'll even approach Andruw Jones' league.

Despite nearly 500 fewer at bats, Jones outhomers Francoeur 80-73. But Frenchy makes up for it with average, right? Uhhh, no. Francoeur owns a middling .267-.260 edge. On-base percentage? Uhhh, no again. Jones' lousy on-base percentage became a running joke in Atlanta, but the .365 he notched in his fourth year is 27 points better than Frenchy's 2007 career-best mark (by comparison, Chipper Jones has never had an OBP lower than .353- and that came in his rookie year).

Yet that hasn't translated to fewer strikeouts for Francoeur. Jones earned a reputation as a whiff machine in Atlanta, and his K every 4.6 at bats over his first four seasons proved it was more than a hunch. Yet Frenchy is only slightly better, 5.0-1, and here's a real shocker: Andruw more than makes up for it a dominant edge in walks (179-115).

That's right, Andruw Jones is a MORE disciplined hitter than Jeff Francoeur. Let that sink in for a few minutes.

So we've established that Francoeur is just plain bad, even my Andruw Jones standards. But we already knew that, right? The question is, is he going to get better? My money is on absolutely not.

Take Jones. His strikeout ratio never improved at all, actually dropping to 4.5-1 for his career. Neither did his OBP, as he's yet to do better .366 in a season. Average? Well, Andruw did hit .303 in his fifth season - but never better than .277 again.

The only thing that did get better was power, as he six times hit more home runs than his best over his four seasons and five times matched or bettered his top slugging percentage from his first four campaigns. In other words, except for home runs, Andruw Jones was as good as he was ever going to get after three seasons in a Braves uniform.

Is he an anomaly? Well, Chipper Jones set almost every single-season mark of his career in his fifth season - as did Andruw. Both were good to great for several years after that, but they were never better than they were in that fifth season, and that fifth season was merely an extension of what they had shown over their first four. Frenchy's best has barely been good.

Sure, those are only two examples, but I'd be willing to bet that most good players who aren't freebasing horse steroids show the same trend. That means that the most we could ever expect from Frenchy, in our wildest dreams, would be next season, and judging from his first four we're looking at, what?, a .295 average? 35 homers? 115 RBIs? With a TON of strikeouts and pretty much no production at all outside of the round-trippers?

History shows it's possible, but even if it happens that's it. Then you're stuck with a slightly above-average power hitter who is simply a bad offensive player in every other respect - and who is only going to get worse with each passing summer. Frenchy will not help you by advancing runners or working pitchers or getting on base in other ways. If he's not hitting the ball out of the park, he's basically like having another pitcher in the lineup.

Hey, I like Francoeur. He hustles. He cares. He's just not very good, and he's never going to be. It's time for the Braves to cut their losses.

They still won't be able to beat the Marlins in the East, but it'll be a start.

What a weekend

Well, if you count 2-2 being a weekend to remember. And when you're a Braves/Furman/Virginia/Panthers fan, that definitely counts.

In honor of the end of a brutally long season, we'll focus on Atlanta.

The good news:

• The Braves took 1 of 3 from the Astros. That may not sound that great, but not getting swept was a damn fine accomplishment for this team.
  
• Mike Hampton finished the season with another pretty-not-all-that-bad performance, meaning he'll likely earn a $40 million contract from somebody in the offseason (the Dodgers seem like a good fit) while the Braves hoard their pennies waiting for Steve Carlton to become available.
  
• Chipper won the batting title, and it wasn't completely because he had about nine at bats in September thanks to rare nagging injuries that limited him to pinch-hitting duty.
• Kelly Johnson closed out with two more hits on Sunday, putting a nice finishing touch on a torrid, meaningless September.
  
• And, let's see, oh yeah: Corky Miller managed to keep his average below .090 for the entire season.

The bad news:

• Atlanta lost 90 games for the first time since 1990. Ahh, the good ol' days.
  
• Despite his .364 average and .470 on-base percentage, both tops in the NL, small pieces of Chipper's 36-year-old body continue to simply fall off at random times. Maybe it's time to test that guy for leprosy. He played in only 128 games and amassed just 439 at bats between hamstring/quad/shoulder/foot/ankle/knee injuries. Geez, just think how bad it would have been had he not redidicated himself to offseason fitness.
• The aforementioned Johnson, despite his late flurry, still hit a mere .287 with a team-high 113 strikeouts. That's not a terrible number for a No. 3 hitter with 25-30 bombs. Unfortunately, Kelly hit a Glenn Hubbard-like 12 home runs, and it's going to take a lot more than that for me to forget that dropped pop up with two outs in the ninth against the Phillies that set the Braves down the road to Nationals land.
  
• Jeff Francoeur never figured it out, and it says a lot about this sorry team that he nonetheless led the Braves in games played (155) and at bats (599). Frenchy used all that playing time to hit a whopping 11 home runs and post a .294 on-base percentage that makes Andruw Jones look like Wade Boggs. That was the second worst OBP in the National League, and though I guess you could see positives in him raising his average to .239 after months spent in the two-teens and actually not leading the team in strikeouts (thanks to Mr. Johnson), he still had 111 whiffs and posted by far the worst strikeout-to-walk ratio on the squad compliments of a mere 39 free passes. His .359 slugging percentage was also far and away the worst among Braves regulars and sixth-worst in the NL. In fact, you can make a strong case that there was no less-productive hitter in baseball last year - a disturbing development for someone in his fourth full season. I'm starting to realize that Frenchy deserves a post unto himself. Let's move on.
• After a strong start, Atlanta's pitching melted like a Pakistani politician facing down the Great Satan in his pants at the chance to hug Sarah Palin, and nothing illustrates that better than Hampton emerging as the ace with a 4.85 ERA that earned him rave reviews. No team was more devastated by injuries than Atlanta, so I don't put much stock in that. However, the continuing horror show that is Chuck James/Jo Jo Reyes/Charlie Morton is a sobering look at this team's future (not to mention its farm system). Supposedly Atlanta's three best prospects, they went a combined 9-24 with ERAs ranging from 5.81 to 9.10. I know much is made of the fact that Smoltz/Glavine/Avery struggled in '89 and '90 right before they got great, but I'll be flabbergasted if one of these guys turns out to be anything more than Kyle Davies. Not because of their stuff, but because they all seem to have a raging, incurable case of vaginaitis. As in, I see no evidenced that there are a pair of balls total between them. Yeah, I said it. I'm bitter.

Sorry, looks like I made the bad a lot longer than the good. The story of my pessimistic attitude. Look for a more detailed breakdown of Frenchy's numbers so far in his career, and how they relate to the Braves needing to trade him yesterday.

First trip to Paladin stadium this season

If I'm gonna do this blog thing, I've got to do this blog thing. And if I'm gonna do this Furman football thing, I've got to do this Furman (holy crap - my dog just farted. I'll be back after I let her and her intestinal chemistry experiment outside).

OK, I've regained consciousness. As I was saying, if I'm gonna do this Furman football thing I've got to do this Furman football thing. Thus, I will be at Paladin Stadium this Saturday despite the fact we're playing Chattanooga.

It's a 3:30 game, so perfect for tailgating. Not perfect for watching other games on TV, but who needs that when you've got beer in the cooler, good friends and a nice early fall afternoon on - everybody together now - a beautful campus? OK, it will probably just be me and my wife, Kristy, so no friendship. and it's supposed to be cold and raining. Hmmm. There will be beer though. That's right, in your face dry campus. I ain't scared of your rules anymore. I'm 37 now. I'm a man!

(Incidentally, it appears Oregon State is beating USC 14-0 right now. How is that possible? Likely, it's possible because Virginia really is that bad and the Beavers are inspired by the news that recently booted Cavalier quarterback Peter Lalich will be transferring to Corvallis because there's a chance he can skirt NCAA eligibility requirements. I mean, he's heard great things about its, uhhh, business school. Yeah, that's it. Business school.)

Anyway, speaking of tailgating, my brother-in-law Bob has been known to bring a 1978 Magnavox to these games that he's somehow figured out how to plug into a cigarette lighter, and occassionally it's even possible to see things through the glare of the sun and bursts of static snow that look like Batman circa Adam West punching the joker. Here's my question:

Will we still be able to watch when the federal government makes everything go digital? I didn't pay attention to those commercials, but I'm sure my mom will know. She still has a rotary phone and eyes the internet like its this year's version of a beta player or an 8-track deck.

(Holy crap - OSU's about to make it 21-0 nothing. It's that Lalich magic, baby).

Time for Dr. Lou, The Daily Show and bed.