Saturday, May 16, 2009

JUST IN: TO SPITE FACE, ACC CUTS OFF NOSE

Lord knows, I love the ACC. Always have, always will. But these recent delusions of gradeur are getting on my nerves.

First, the nation's best conference basketball schedule was ruined by the additions of Boston College and Virgina Tech. Then, the ACC hopelessy decided that it was a football conference and planted its championship game in Jacksonville, Fla., to the surprise of the locals and the disdain of fans, neither of whom bothered to put their rears in most of that cavernous stadium's seats.

That prompted a move to Tampa, which was even less of a draw and even more of an embarrassment on live TV. In between, the ACC haughtily announced that Charlotte could no longer host its basketball tournament because 19,000-seat Bobcats arena just wasn't big enough for this world-class event, so now we're blessed with 28,000 fans (maybe) in 70,000-seat football domes every March.

Great call.

But just when I thought I understood commissioner John Swofford's motives - feeding his nest of greedy, chirping baby chicks otherwise known as the 12 school presidents - he goes and makes a bizarre decision that seems to have nothing to do with money but everything to do with the rest of the ACC keeping Clemson in its place.

How else can you possibly explain Greenville, S.C., not getting the ACC baseball tournament in favor of Myrtle Beach, S.C.? Here's a hint: You can't.

The ACC baseball tournament is not exactly must-see TV. It excites the masses almost as much as an adult softball double-elimination bracket, so long as the bracket is being played out at Disney World. But years of paltry attendance and sagging interest can be traced almost totally to the league's decision to keep moving the competition to as many backwoods locales as possible; the only common denominator being nobody who cared lived anywhere near the field, nobody knew where that field would be the next season, and Greenville was never in the running.

Since 1996, the ACC baseball tournament has been in Durham, N.C. Also, St. Petersburg, Fla. And Durham. Durham again. Fort Mill, S.C. Back to St. Petersburg. Don't forget about Salem, Va.

What did all of these places have in common (besides Waffle House being the only place to eat)? None of them approached what the league drew for baseball during its nine years in Greenville from 1987 to 1995 (with the exception of St. Petersburg the first time). But none of them were close to Clemson, either. That apparently was more important.

This year was supposed to be Fenway Park in Boston, which sounds awesome until you realize the only reason anyone would go to the games would be to throw things at those hillbilly colleges roughing up the sacred Sox turf (Maryland, at nearly eight hours, is BY FAR the closest team to Boston besides Boston College).

But a "scheduling conflict" (told you the ACC has no sway in Boston) forced a move to Durham, and now "travel concerns" have canned Fenway in 2010 for Greensboro, N.C. OK. Travel concerns are what matter now. Only, that still doesn't make Myrtle Beach make sense.

Myrtle Beach is closer than Greenville for SOME schools - namely the only ones that seem to matter: North Carolina, N.C. State and Duke. Because Myrtle Beach is not signficantly closer to, well, any of the rest and is much farther for many.

Maryland (50 miles), Boston College (75) and Miami (30) join UNC, State and Duke in being closer to Myrtle Beach if you drive, but when you start getting into thousand-mile trips that kind of distance really doesn't matter - especially since anyone who can afford to go that far will be flying anyway.

Of the schools that are within reasonable driving distance, Myrtle Beach is actually much more of a pain in the rear to get to. Wake is closer to Greenville. So is Georgia Tech. And Virginia. And Virginia Tech. And Florida State. And, of course, Clemson.

So whose "travel concerns" are really being addressed by the move to Myrtle Beach? Almost nobody's, as far as I can tell. But, again, Clemson won't be able to get there easily, either. Again, that seems to be the biggest - and only - strike against Greenville.

Let me explain. I was at Furman when the ACC tournament was held at the G-Braves old stadium south of I-85, and that was also around the time that the tournament became relevant - thanks almost solely to Clemson fans, the best baseball fans in the ACC.

Before 1987, the ACC's record attendance at its baseball tournament was 22,638, the year before in Durham. Greenville never drew less than 30,000 and four times cracked 40 as raucous masses of orange clogged the exit ramps off of 85 and the stands at Memorial Stadium.

Tickets were tough. The atmosphere was often electric. But if you listened hard enough between people having fun you could hear the whines about Clemson's unfair "homefield advantage." Nevermind that this advantage doesn't seem to bother the ACC when every single basketball tournament ever has not been held in the states of South Carolina or Virginia and nearly every one has been in the cozy confines of Charlotte and Greensboro - about as big a homefield advantage and the Big Four could ask for outside playing on their own campuses.

But against all logic, the ACC yanked the tourney in 1996 for Durham's crumbling old park and promptly saw attendance plummet to 22,000. By the time it reached Salem in 2003, the numbers were down to 18,000 and whatever momentum the event had gained was lost.

A three-year run in Jacksonville marked a resurgence of sorts, and on paper it looks like that was a better home than even Greenville. But while the league claims attendance numbers of 66, 73 and 59,000 from 2005-07 (you could have fooled me by what I saw on TV), a comparison with Greenville's heyday is apples and oranges because the move to a round-robin format keeps teams from going home (and fans spending money).

At the G-Braves old park, a double-elimination bracket was constantly culling the fan base, and ACC also hasn't been held at Greenville's magnificent new Fluor Field, right in the heart of one of the most underrated downtowns in America.

Come on, ACC. This is getting ridiculous. Why do you keep trying to reinvent the wheel? Greenville is big enough. It's interested. It has a history of success with your tournament nowhere else can match. And, believe it or not, South Carolina is ACC country even though you've been ignoring that for the better part of 60 years.

Greenville is where your tournament belongs. Tell Carolina and State to get over it.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Furman ERA update

Looks like the Paladins will make the first SoCon tournament they have ever hosted despite the fact that they were swept by the Citadel at home last weekend. That's because the teams behind them in the standings - Samford and Wofford - also managed to get swept, so if Furman can somehow win at least one game at last-place UNC-Greensboro this weekend the Paladins are in the eight-team bracket.

Not sure if that's much consolation, but it is what it is. On a higher note - or lower if you want to go down in history - despite four straight losses Furman actually lowered its team ERA to 7.11, meaning the school record is probably safe and the staff is getting hot at the right time.

So watch out, Southern Conference.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Looking like a long summer

I had low expectations for the Braves entering this season. I thought their pitching additions would help a little but their offense would be no better than last year's punchless attack, and guess what? More than month in it looks like I was right.

Of course, it didn't take a rocket science to make those predictions. You just had to be able to read the age column on the roster. The rebuilt starting staff consisted of guys who would be 33, 34 and 36 by the end of the season, and there was no reason to believe that the only dangerous hitter on your team would get better by turning 37. But, sadly, all those gray beards are not the problem. Far from it.

Javier Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe, the hurlers in question, have by and large done a good job. If nothing else, they've been an improvement over last year, and that's all you could ask for from such a no-name bunch. Chipper Jones isn't off to a great start, but a .280 batting average, three homers and a .467 slugging percentage isn't awful.

Much more disturbing for both this season and the future of the franchise has been the utter lack of improvement from young players. Outside of Brian McCann, currently out with a vision problem that could ruin his season, and Yunel Escobar the farm system has fallen on its face, and that's the simple reason Atlanta is 11-15 and sinking fast.

Kelly Johnson, now hitting .218 and platooning with Omar Infante in a season where he was supposed to become the next Chase Utley, is looking more and more like a streaky head case. Rookie center fielder Jordan Schafer has struck out 11 times in his last five games - including an remarkable run of back-to-back-to-back hat tricks - and leads the MAJORS with a staggering 34 whiffs in 84 at bats. He also doesn't hit for power or steal bases and appears to be overmatched to the point that the Braves may have little choice but to send him down to Triple-A.

But in my view nothing is killing the Braves' offense more than Jeff Francoeur, who still can't get on base, make contact when he needs to or hit home runs. He didn't produce last season, and he's not producing this season despite playing every, single day and leading the team in at bats (again).

Going into spring training, much was made of Frenchy's rebuilt swing and renewed plate discipline, and the nine strikeouts so far in 2009 are definitely an improvement. Unfortunately, that extra contact his resulted in little more than Francoeur becoming a below-average poke hitter considering his pedestrian .282 average and only eight extra-base hits - three home runs - in 103 ABs. He also has drawn a paltry four walks, which is the same number of free passes Brandon Jones earned in five games before he was sent down to Triple-A earlier this week.

Casey Kotchman, the decidedly weak consolation prize Atlanta got for Mark Texeira (and we'll go more into the havoc Texeira has wreaked on the entire franchise later), seems to have everything you'd want from a 26-year-old first baseman hitting .297, assuming you like your first basemen to have four - four - RBIs in 26 games with no homers or stolen bases.

Jo-Jo Reyes has devolved from top prospect to washout with a 5-14 record and a 5.85 ERA over three seasons of inexplicably not being able to get anybody out with a 94-mph left-handed fastball, and outside of Tommy Hanson there's precious little else to even hope for out of the minors.

The Braves rank near the bottom of the league in home runs with 20 and are dead last - by a lot - with just four stolen bases. Josh Anderson, banished to Detroit to make room for Schafer in the spring, has more than that by himself (6) in part-time duty (gee, I wonder if maybe Cox should have kept him around?).

In short, the Braves are average, boring and seem to have little potential. And it's only May. Oh boy.

Monday, May 4, 2009

Which reminds me ....

Looking up just how awful Furman's pitching has been this season got me thinking about my senior year, 1993, and how awful our pitching was. My fading memory said we were a pretty good hitting bunch that was derailed by giving up nine runs every game, but I had no idea. On both fronts.

We hit .300 as a team that season, which is one of only five times since '63 that a Furman team has managed to do that (it had happened only once prior to '93). Wow. Props to us. Yet we finished only 17-22 and did not qualify for my senior year SoCon tourney because of an injury-riddled pitching staff that managed an ugly 6.64 ERA - sixth worst in school history (soon to be seventh).

I'll never forget standing in center field trying to catch my breath between line drives in the gaps, watching lead after lead evaporate. It was miserable, and I know what this current Paladin crew is going through. Still, it's pretty amazing they're 21-23 with that pitching and only a .282 team average.

Paladins in danger of missing tournament they're hosting. Ouch

The Southern Conference baseball tournament has been in Charleston, S.C., since 1990 and before that it was in Asheville, N.C., so when the league moves its competition to the Greenville Drive's beautiful home digs later this month that will be a historic occasion. Well, as historic as anything can be with SoCon baseball, but you get the point.

You'd think this would be great news for my alma mater and co-host, Furman, and it would be if it wasn't for the nagging little problem of the Paladins actually getting to play in said tournament. With two conference weekends left, FU is sitting precariously in eighth out of 12 teams - known otherwise as the last spot that qualifies for the field.

Furman closes with Citadel (no, I won't call Citadel "The" Citadel because, 1, I hate the school, and, 2, it's stupid. So I'm probably doing Pretend Soldier U a favor, but anyway ...), which is tied for fourth in the standings, and UNC-Greensboro, which, at 4-18 in the league, sits comfortably in last.

Davidson is two games ahead of Furman while Samford and Wofford are two back, so you have to figure the 'Dins will make it barring a major collapse. That's good. I guess. What won't be so good, should it happen, would be giving one of the school's all-time worst pitching staffs a chance to add to its ugly numbers. And keep in mind that using the terms "all-time worst" and "Furman baseball" in the same sentence is not a sentence to be taken lightly.

Records are available back to 1963, and only twice has the school had a a worse team ERA than 2009's 7.28: 7.32 in 1985 and 7.51 in 1988. That is not an easy record to break, but it's entirely possible.

Amazingly, two teams in the SoCon have even worse pitching than FU this season: Samford (7.29 ERA) and Wofford (7.91). Sadly, all the potential fireworks won't light up downtown Greenville since, obviously, no more than one and perhaps none of these stellear "pitching" staffs will make the field.

Monday, March 2, 2009

And down the stretch we come...

Only three games remain, and at 9-16 overall, 3-11 in the ACC our beloved Cavaliers are all-but-assured of the program's worst season of the modern era. Three losses, and Virginia finishes 9-19, 3-13, which would be the first team since 1967-68 to fail to crack double digits in the win column, and it will take two victories to reach 11 - the current modern lowest win total set in 1997-98. Thirteen conference losses also would tie '97-98 for the worst in school history.

Remaining is Clemson on the road, Maryland at home and the opening round of the league tournament - most likely against Clemson or Boston College. Could the Cavaliers win one of those games? Sure. And thanks to the debacle that is Paul Hewitt in Atlanta, they won't even finish last in the regular-season standings. So, there's that. As if anyone cares.

The bigger story, from a Virginia perspective, is that this season marks a new low in a long decline that has seen Virginia basketball win 20 games twice in the last 14 years - and counting - with a combined league record (assuming the Cavs lose their final two of '08-09) of 87-137. That would be a winning percentage of 38.8 percent for those of you keeping score at home, which means that Virginia beats an ACC opponent about as often as Sammy Zeglinski makes a shot.

Yeah, it's that bad bad.

Meanwhile, Virginia is 3-11 in the ACC tournament over that span (thank God for conference expansion because all three of those wins came either in the play-in game or the first round) and 1-2 in two NCAA tournament appearances. Ladies and gentlemen, I officially give you the worst program in the ACC.

But we're here to look at the bright side, and the bright side is that as bad as things have gotten it's still a long way from as bad as it has been in Charlottesville. I did a little research, and let's just say that Virginia has a long tradition of not exactly being a powerhouse. Check this out:

The ACC began in 1954. From 1954 until 1977 Virginia finished last or next-to-last 13 times. In the glorious 1960s, beginning with the 1959-60 campaign, the Cavs were dead last in the standings for five straight seasons. Then, they finished seventh of eight teams for the next four seasons.

It wasn't until '68-69 that they won even 10 games (going 10-15), and it wasn't until '70-71 that they had their first winning seasoon (15-11) since 1953-54. Along the way, Virginia had such memorable hits as 6-19 in '56-57, 6-18 in '59-60, 5-18 in '61-62, 5-20 in '62-63 and, the granddaddy of them all, 3-23 in '60-61 that has been matched only by Clemson's 2-21 showing in '54-55 as the all-time standard for ACC putridity.

Wow. I guess this really leaves only one question: Why have I been rooting for this program for so long? Clearly, there's a psychological explanation and most likely a disorder that needs to be addressed, stemming from a dysfunctional relationship with my father.

Of course, that's another column. The lessons here are two-fold: Dave Leitao isn't as bad as he could be, and there is no rational reason to think Virginia should ever be any better than they are - at least for any extended period of time.

Marinate in that one for a while.

Friday, February 6, 2009

This year's Virginia team could go down in history - and I do mean down

Virginia basketball is bad this season. Really, really bad. But exactly how bad?

I wanted to find out, and it was totally worth it.

Turn out, Dave Leitao's fourth team has a chance to be special. These Cavaliers could be the worst bunch since what I have deemed the beginning of the modern era, Terry Holland's first year as coach in 1974-75.

Sure, I could rate the team on the obvious: A 7-11 overall record and a half-game from last in the league standings. Four of six ACC losses by 10 or more points (and counting). One player on the roster who looks like he could start for any of the 11 other ACC teams. Or that Virginia is 12th of 12 in (we're gonna need a bullet list for this):
  • Scoring defense
  • Scoring margin (the only team getting outscored)
  • Field goal percentage
  • Field goal percentage defense (that's an impressive two-fer, by the way)
  • 3-point field goal percentage
The Cavs are also second-to-last in:
  • 3-point field goal percentage defense (thanks Maryland)
  • Assists (thanks Florida State)
And, they're third-to-last in:
  • 3-point field goals made (Georgia Tech, Wake Forest are worse - somehow)
  • Blocked shots (Assane Sene and Jeff Allen single-handedly hold off Miami and N.C. State)
  • Assist-to-turnover ratio (Georgia Tech and Florida State; how the hell has Florida State won 17 games?)
But, still, all that bumbling just proves that Virginia is really bad this year. The point of this time-waster is, how does Virginia rate among cruddy Virginia and ACC teams of years past?

Quite well, turns out.

I've narrowed the list of the three worst Virginia teams of the last 34 years to these:

  • 1976-77 team that went 12-17 and 2-10 in ACC, seventh of seven teams
  • 1997-98 team that went 11-19, 3-13 in ACC, ninth of nine teams
  • 1998-99 team that went 14-16, 4-12 in ACC, ninth of nine teams
The '08-09 bunch is almost certain to move to the top of that list. I mean, bottom. Currently, Virginia is 7-11 and 1-6, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say the 11-win futility mark of '97-98 is doomed. There is no way this team will win even three more games. Will Leitao's crew also set the mark for fewest league wins? A strong, strong chance.

Now, I've been surprised at late-season surges before (seems that the '98-99 crew had one) and it could certainly happen again, but assuming this team keeps stumbling along at its current no-sign-of-getting-it rate, we can chalk down six more losses right now: at North Carolina, at Florida State, Clemson at home, at Clemson, Wake Forest at home, first round of ACC tournament.

That leaves the Hoos at 7-17, 1-11. I know, I know, Wake has lost some weird games lately and Virginia will be in the play-in round in Atlanta, but the Deacs will not get embarrassed again and Virginia never wins in the ACC tournament, ever.

So let's move to the four slim chances at wins: Virginia Tech at home, at N.C. State, Miami at home, Maryland at home. The Hokies are 14-7 and much more talented than the Cavs, but it is a rivalry game and Virginia did play them tough in Blacksburg. Still, I don't see it happening. State is just 2-5 in the league and reeling, but the game is in Raleigh. Virginia wins on the road barely more than it wins in the ACC tournament (witness the unreal choke losses two years ago that cost the Cavs the league title). Again, don't see it happening.

We're left with the Hurricanes and the Terps. Miami is 15-7, but the Hurricanes stink on the road almost as much as Virginia and are prone to Georgia Tech-like bouts of stupid shots and turnovers. Maryland handled Virginia in College Park, but since then Gary Williams' team is in flame-out mode and this, too is a rivalry game. I'm going to go as high as 40 percent that the Cavaliers win one of these games.

That means a final record of 8-20, 2-14. Definitely the school's worst of my arbitrary modern era. How would that rate with ACC's collective worst?

Right up - I mean, down - there, my friend.

Single-digit season wins is select company, as are 20 losses. Only six teams have pulled the latter feat and eight the former. The list:

Most overall losses
  • Georgia Tech, 23, 1981
  • Wake Forest, 21, 1986
  • Miami, 20, 2007
  • North Carolina, 20, 2002
  • Maryland, 20, 1989
  • Clemson, 20, 1983
Fewest overall wins
  • Georgia Tech, 3-23, 1981
  • Wake Forest, 8-21, 1986
  • North Carolina, 8-20, 2002
  • N.C. State, 8-19, 1993
  • Georgia Tech 8-18, 1980
  • Maryland, 9-20, 1989
  • Georgia Tech, 9-18, 1997
  • Maryland, 9-17, 1987
As you can see, 8-20 would tie UNC for, percentage-wise, the third-worst record in ACC modern history. Georgia Tech's 3-23 is untouchable, but, if Virginia can somehow go 0-fer through March, Wake's 8-21 of 1986 is going down. Still, I think you have to take into account ACC record when gauging the worst teams because it's the only constant, and thanks to Georgia Tech back in December Virginia is assured of not joining this group:

  • Maryland, 0-14, 1987
  • Wake Forest, 0-14, 1986
  • Georgia Tech, 0-14, 1981
You can't really make a case that Virginia is, or would be, as bad as those winless charity cases, so, kudos, Cavs - you're out of that doghouse. But don't unpack just yet; this one is still available:
  • Maryland, 1-13, 1989
  • Georgia Tech, 1-13, 1980
It doesn't seem like it at first glance, but there's a big difference in how history would judge 8-20, 2-14 compared to 7-21, 1-15. Fifteen league teams have won two games, making that a pretty pedestrian group of stinkiness that you could join with relative anonymity. But 1-15 in the ACC would go down as the fourth-worst ever, while one one team has won less than seven games or lost more than 21.

I'm one of these guys who prays for every hurricane to reach Category 5 and for every blizzard to drop three feet of snow, so I won't lie: I say we've come this far. Let's go down this road until we're eaten by some kind of giant spider. If nothing else, the chance a fourth-worst team in ACC history will give me a reason to watch for the next month.

And, lord knows, as a Virginia fan I have so little.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Sagarin update

It's no exaggeration to say I'm forcing myself to talk about Furman basketball. But the truth is, this season is getting pretty interesting in an I-sort-of-want-to-see-that-new-Friday-the-13th-movie way.

Which I do, by the way.

Anyway, Davidson handed Furman its worst loss of a long season earlier this week, a 40-point drubbing that sank the Paladins to 2-14 (or 0-14 as far as the computer is concerned, since the wins were over D-III and NAIA schools). Here are some other numbers to chew on:
  • Furman has now lost games by 32, 27, 24, 20 and 19 points this season. Granted, all were on the road, and three were to Notre Dame, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. But, still ...
  • To be fair, Furman has been more competitive at home, losing by 5, 11, 11, 5 and 6 points. So, good for them.
  • Jeff Jackson's career record as a head coach heading into this year was 43-99. Now it's 45-113, for a winning percentage of .284. That's right, .284. I'm not kidding, the man has won 28 percent of his games at Furman and New Hampshire. In his official bio on the Furman athletic Web site, an accolade goes as follows: "In his first season the Wildcats won seven games and the next year improved to 10-17." Wow. That's awesome.
Furman doesn't offer a media guide online, so I can't put this season into perspective when it comes to the worst ever, but it has to be on pace. According to the USA Today Sagarin computer ratings, Furman is 344th out of 347 D-I schools - and, incredibly, the Paladins have already lost to the 343rd and 345th ranked schools this season.

Naturally, we have to wonder at this point if Furman can go a cool 2-28 (counting the inevitable first-round Southern Conference tournament loss). It's possible - this team really stinks - but there are some formidable roadblocks starting Monday when UNC-Greensboro comes to Timmons.

The Spartans are a cool 3-13, so the Paladins on paper won't have a better chance this year to notch the all-important Win No. 3. Should they falter, it gets tough.

Remaining games include Georgia Southern, Western Carolina, Elon, Citadel, College of Charleston and Wofford on the road and Samford, Chattanooga, Southern, Davidson and Wofford at home. Based on performances so far this year (no road loss by less than 11 points except for a five-point setback at 344th-ranked Dartmouth) we can probably rule out any of the away games, though Elon is only 4-11 and could present a test to Furman's futility.

That leaves the contests at beautiful, silent Timmons Arena. Chattanooga is only 9-10 but has already beaten Furman by 27. I don't see that turning around, even with 350 home fans creating that crazy atmosphere Timmons is known for. Davidson? That's a good one.

So only Samford, Southern and Wofford remain. Samford is 9-8 but only beat Furman by 11 in Birmingham, while Southern is only 6-10, while Wofford is 7-8. Honestly, on paper, the Paladins could win two of those games, and they'd better, or Jackson's job could be on the line.

I'm totally kidding. I have no idea what it takes to get fired as Furman men's basketball coach, just as I have no idea what it takes to get hired. But I'm proud to say I was there to witness the Jeff Jackson era.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Painful

Now I've learned two things about DVR: As I said earlier, you should always set the stop time more than two hours from the start time. And it's also a fantastic tool to illustrate exactly how Tyler Hansbrough is able to constantly find himself alone under the basket against Virginia.

Of course, if I told you that he was being "guarded" by Jamil Tucker that would probably answer your question completely enough, but video evidence puts proof in the pudding. Example 1:

Hansbrough starts out at the free throw line. Tucker is under the basket. A Carolina player takes a baseline jumper. Hansbrough, as he's been known to do, beelines for the rim. Tucker, as he's been known to do, stands still and watches the ball float through the air, likely wondering how this can somehow mean he gets to take another 3. As the shot nears the rim, Tucker remembers he was supposed to be doing something - what was it? - oh yeah, where's that big white guy? Tucker looks behind him, but Hansbrough isn't there because he's now between Tucker and the rim. Shot misses, Hansbrough grabs it, puts it in, is fouled, and Tucker claps his hands together in frustration.

If you're Jamil Tucker, how are you ever thinking about anything else but boxing Tyler Hansbrough out? If he's at halfcourt, you're pushing him toward the 3-point line on the other end of the court, right? Yet somehow Dave Leitao has sent him on the court not completely certain that it's critical to account for Tyler Hansbrough around the basket. That's something you'd feel stupid doing, or not doing, at the Y. Yet failing to box out the hustling offensive rebounder happened over and over again on Saturday.

Example 2:

Tucker is again under the defensive basket. Hansbrough is behind him on the block as a Carolina player in front of Tucker drives baseline as if to take another baseline jumper. Mike Scott collapses on defense, forcing the UNC player to pass the ball over to Ed Davis about 15 feet away between the free throw line and the baseline. Tucker immediately begins racing Scott to get to Davis, who then passes the ball to a wide-open Hansbrough under the basket. Tucker turns and futilily hacks Hansbrough as Hansbrough scores and again heads to the line. Scott looks at Tucker with his palms out, asking, basically:

If you're Jamil Tucker, how are you ever thinking it's more important to stop an Ed Davis 15-footer than a Tyler Hansbrough dunk? Again, this would be a stupid defensive play at the Y. In the ACC, it's inexcusable. But unfortunately it's par for the course at Virginia these days.

Obviously, I'm not a basketball coach. There can be no doubt that Dave Leitao knows more basketball in his pinkie that I will ever know. But even if he could counter any criticism I made with a sound Xs-and-Os argument one thing that can't be glossed over is the fact that Virginia is the worst team in the ACC. By that simple measure, something is very wrong in Charlottesville.

I know, I know, I had some happy thoughts after the Virginia Tech game. And I'm not backing away from anything I said, though it was sobering how far optimism in Charlottesville is from the quality of play in Chapel Hill. Sylven Landesberg was humbled by the Tar Heels' team defense and athletes. Sammy Zeglinski was overwhelmed and, apparently, terrified of Ty Lawson. Worse, though, than Carolina's glaring talent advantage was how much more cohesively they played.

The Tar Heels were determined to stop Virginia's best player, and they did. The majority of their baskets came from an assist -which means means that Carolina was running something akin to an offense. If you're Virginia, you can't win this game with what you're sending onto the court. But you can stop Tyler Hansbrough with double teams and box outs. You can run plays to free Mustapha Farrakhan and Jeff Jones for 3-pointers off of screens. You can isolate Mamadi Diane on the wing and let him try to beat his defender off the dribble. You can post Mike Scott and let him try to work inside.

They did none of those things, however. Any particular reason?

I saw maybe two Scott isolations inside. I saw one play where Virginia actually seemed to be setting a screen on purpose for Farrakhan to shoot a 3. The rest of the time, it was ineffective confusion from the Cavaliers. Did anyone understand what he was supposed to be doing? If I'm wrong, somebody please tell me what I'm missing, because to me it was guys catching passes on the perimeter, dribbling around hesitantly, Leitao screaming move, a pass to a different spot on the perimeter, more tentative looking around, culminating with a wild jumper from Farrakhan or Calvin Baker.

Painful.

Other notes:
  • Jeff Jones seldom plays, and when he does he sometimes doesn't look all that great. But it took about two trips down the court against Carolina in mop-up time to show once again that he is as talented a player as Virginia has. I'd like to blame the kid, but with Leitao's history either he doesn't have a clue how to develope these guys or he does an awful job analyzing mental makeup before he offers a scholarship. All I kept thinking was, there is no way Jeff Jones goes to Carolina or Duke and doesn't end up contributing to that program. But if he doesn't transfer after this season I'll be stunned.
  • Zeglinski has to be more aggressive to play at this level. He's a good ballhandler and sees himself as a point guard, but he must make more happen than dribbling over the halfcourt line and passing. In the ACC, point guards attack the paint. Until he does that, Leitao has little choice but to play Calvin Baker - and that's not exactly a recipe for long-term success.
  • Why did Tunji Soroye never get off the bench against the biggest team in the league? He's limited, but he's a senior who has been in your program for five years and logged a lot of minutes. If you can't figure out how to make a contributor out of a kid like that, especially on a last-place team, it says more about you as a coach than it does about that kid.
  • Watching Diane explode off the ground around the rim in the second half, taking rebounds away from Danny Green, reinforced what I just said: Getting no production out of the best athlete on your roster in his senior season says more about your coaching than it does about that kid. OK, he's not hitting 3s. But you know what? He's always taken too many of those to begin with. Slashing to the rim is a huge void in Virginia's attack, and Diane clearly can do it at an ACC level. Yet he never does. Why has Leitao not taken him aside and said, Mamadi, this season we need you on the offensive glass. We need you attacking the rim. That's the only way we can win. If Diane refuses to do it but has been asked, why is Jeff Jones or Farrakhan not starting? Nothing in that scenario indicates effective coaching.
I don't want to spend all of my time bashing Leitao, but when I watch Virginia I always end up asking myself over and over again, what are they doing? Still, they're young. The optimist would say that UNC was angry and Virginia is young and learning. Bad combination.

Perhaps things will be different tonight at Maryland. We shall see.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Good advice

There's a headline on the Virginia men's basketball home page about Jamil Tucker. It reads: "Jamil Tucker: The Road Less Traveled."

They must be talking about the one to the paint. BAM.

Virginia shows some signs of life

Before I forget (which is all too easy to do with Virginia basketball these days), I watched the Cavs-Virginia Tech game on Sunday, a day late compliments of my prized new DVR. Which reminds me: When you get that option about changing recording end time, you probably should on a college basketball game. Because they almost never end at two hours, which I found out when my screen went black with 57 seconds left and the Cavaliers making a furious comeback.

Of course, I didn't actually think they'd win - and they didn't - but coach Leitao's troops actually gave me a little hope. Mostly out of fear, I hadn't watched a Virginia game beginning-to-end all season, but I was pleasantly surprised by Saturday in a number of ways.

First of all, 7-foot freshman Assane Sene is a VERY exciting player. Obviously, he's tall, but in stark contrast to lumbering Tunji Soroye (for whom I've always had a soft spot not supported statistically in any way) he's an active, high-energy guy. Even better, he's almost shockingly athletic (he has 20 blocks already) and is a fiery competitor.

That last trait jumps out especially at Virginia, whose players usually look like slack-jawed, glossy-eyed zombies as they passively take their beatings.

Secondly, I was impressed with freshman point guard Sammy Zeglinski simply because he looked like a point guard. Clearly, he's got a ways to go to compete with ACC athletes on a consistent basis, but a he's pass-first, shoot-second guy that can shoot if you let him. I love Sean Singletary, and maybe this was out of necessity because of his weak supporting cast, but too often for my taste he played more like Allen Iverson than Steve Nash - dribbling and dribbling and dribbling and making the occassional spectacular pass but often eschewing the simple kick out or dump in to the post that could have gotten more guys involved.

And don't get me started on Calvin Baker. Too late. I could go on and on here, but for the sake of my sanity and your attention span two things: STOP DRIVING UNDER THE BASKET, JUMPING, AND THEN LOOKING AROUND FOR SOMEBODY TO PASS TO! And, PASS THE DAMN BALL TO THE POST GUY WHEN HE'S OPEN! STOP LOOKING AT HIM, PUMP FAKING, LOOKING AGAIN, AND THEN RE-EMBARKING ON YOUR POINTLESS DRIBBLE JOURNEY AROUND THE 3-POINT LINE!

OK, now that that's out my system: Yet a third freshman looks like he could be one of the best players to play in Charlottesville. Assuming, of course, he can avoid getting picked up for shoplifting at a JC Penney, resist stealing any electronic devices from somebody in his dorm or pull a gun at a party. Not that I have any reason to think Sylven Landesberg would do any of those things, but a precedent has been set.

This kid is the real deal. He can shoot, he's a tremendous offensive player off the dribble, and, best of all, Landesberg has some basketball sense. He's not a Courtney Alexander gunner, and he's not a one-dimensional, Curtis Staples, 3-point shooter. He scores when he can, when it fits in the game, and he passes when it doesn't.

He's averaging 18.5 point per game, fifth in the ACC, and is already the best Virginia freshman since Bryant Stith - who was probably the best Virginia freshman ever. Jeff Lamp's 17.3 average as a freshman in 1977-78, the current school record, is in real trouble, as is Stith's record of 513 points as a freshman.

Landesberg, Zeglinski, Sene, combined with 6-8 sophomore Mike Scott, who has worked hard to become a respectible inside force, are pieces to what could become the core to a real-live basketball team. Virginia still lacks depth, a coherent offensive plan half the time and horrible lapses in defensive intensity. There is no other scorer to help Landesberg (Mamadi Diane, please, for the love of God, exhaust your eligibility). The Hokies were noticeably more athletic at times.

But I have hope. Hope. Now, if I can just find Andy Dufrain on the Pacific coast of Mexico, perhaps Leitao can guide this program to an ACC tournament win.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Now that's bad

We're up to 347 D-I men's college basketball teams. Furman is now ranked 343rd according to the Sagarin Ratings in USA Today. At 0-11 and counting, we can officially start making the case for Furman as the nation's worst program. I'm so proud.

Only Dartmouth (1-11), North Carolina Central (0-18), Alcorn State (0-14) and New Jersey Tech (0-16) are looking up at Furman. That's right, Furman, the school that produced Frank Selvy, is keeping company with the likes of New Jersey Tech. The Paladins were recently passed by 2-13 North Florida, which broke its 54-game road losing streak with a win over Furman last month. Dartmouth's lone victory? You guessed - compliments of Furman. Now, technically, the 'Dins are 2-11, but to the computer those victories don't count because one was over, gulp, D-III Emory (that would be, no athletic scholarships) and the other was by four points over Berry - a .500 NAIA team.

There is one other winless school, 0-13 Eastern Michigan, but the Eagles are way up there at 317. The way I see it, there are really two questions left to be answered this winter for Paladin hoops: Can Furman go 0-fer, and how much longer can the school put up with the debacle that is coach Jeff Jackson?

Now, sadly for someone who was hoping Jake Delhomme would crack double digits in interceptions on Saturday, there's a fair chance Furman will win at least one more game. The Southern Conference isn't exactly a juggernaut, and with the likes of 4-8 Elon, 7-9 Citadel and 2-11 UNC-Greensboro on the schedule it's possible some loser team will muck up Furman's quest for epic horribleness. But stay positive.

Rumor had it, Larry Davis left the cupboard bare when he bolted to Cincinnati three years ago, so Furman's 17 or so basketball fans thought Jackson had invented coaching when he went 15-16 his first year. OK, so 7-23 last season was a step back, but maybe THAT was when Davis' talent drain kicked in.

Now Jackson has two recruiting classes in place, however, and it's hard to see how things are looking up. Jordan Miller leads the team at 14.2 points per game. Only two other players average more than 9. Nine different players have started at least one game. The Paladins can't shoot - not even free throws - and get outrebounded. They're not athletic. There is not a single statistical category where they are not getting handily beaten by their opponents. Not one.

In other words, they're a disaster. An optimist would say that there are only two seniors and two juniors on the roster, and Miller is a sophomore. As someone who hasn't seen a decent Furman team since '91, however, let's just say I'll believe I should be optimistic in retrospect.

Just the D being the D

As we all know, Jake Delhomme was Ishtar bad Saturday night. Nobody should thank him more than the Arizona Cardinals, though his own defense might want to drop a card in the mail at some point for taking the bullet.

The Panthers have built a reputation as a defensive team. To hear Sunday afternoon pundits tell it week after week, Carolina is just this side of the Steelers and Ravens of the world. John Fox is always described as a "defensive guru." My only question is: Why?

I mean, to be a good defensive team one of the requirements is that you be good at stopping the other team from scoring and/or moving the ball. Carolina wasn't. The Panthers ended the regular season 18th in the league in yards per game. And down the stretch, with the chance to first lock clinch the NFC's top seed and then advance to the conference championship game, the they were brutal.

Against the Giants in Week 16, Carolina made Derrick Ward look like Bo Jackson. And I don't mean the Bo Jackson who posterized Brian Bosworth; I mean the Bo Jackson on Techmo Super Bowl who ran like he was riding motorcycle. In the second half and overtime, Ward looked like he was running against the scout team. A girls lacrosse scout team. A high school girls lacrosse scout team. In a state that doesn't recognize it as an official sport.

Ward cracked 80 yards twice all season - rushing for 101 against the Browns and, ahem, 215 against Carolina in their most important game of the season. How is that possible? And it's not like the Panthers were only bad against the run. Larry Fitzgerald had 150 yards receiving IN THE FIRST HALF Saturday. Maybe the Panthers were focusing too much on Anquan Boldin, and if that were the case it might make be a explanation had Boldin actually, you know, played.

More disturbing, in both cases it's not like the offensive players were performing at a superhuman level. Ward was seldom touched. A Panthers linebacker appearing on the TV screen was akin to a bigfoot sighting. And television didn't do justice to just how open Fitzgerald was. There wasn't a Carolina jersey within 10 yards of him half the time.

Missing tackles or having a team run down your throat means you have bad players. But having a defense so obviously out of position and unprepared for what the offense throws at it tells me you have bad coaching. My guess is coordinator Mike Trgovac will have some serious 'splainin' to do to Fox this week.